Crypto Retirement Calculator
Enter your savings, monthly contributions and planned spending to see how likely your money is to last, with and without crypto. The calculator runs 1,000 simulated markets, works in today’s dollars and applies 2026 tax brackets. It is free and runs in your browser.
Last updated · Tax rates verified 2026-09-23
Your projection
How this calculator works
The calculator follows your savings year by year until retirement, then withdraws what your spending needs after Social Security and other income, plus the tax on that withdrawal. All figures are in today’s dollars.
- Enter your ages and savings. Current age, planned retirement age, the age to plan to, what you have saved outside crypto and what your crypto is worth today (plus what you paid for it).
- Enter what you save each month. Your total monthly saving and the share of it that buys crypto. The rest goes into a stock/bond mix you choose.
- Enter retirement spending and income. Yearly spending in today’s dollars, expected Social Security and the age it starts, and any other inflation-adjusted income.
- Check the assumptions. Inflation, stock and bond returns, and crypto’s average return and volatility. The defaults are documented in the assumptions table.
- Calculate and compare. Read the chance of success, the savings you are projected to have versus what you need, and the what-if scenarios. Save or share the scenario.
Returns. Each year the stock/bond mix and crypto grow by a random return drawn from a lognormal distribution with the average and volatility you set (stocks 16% and bonds 6% volatility, treated as uncorrelated). Lognormal returns can never lose more than 100%, which matters for a 50%+ volatility asset. The table and chart use the median return; the chance of success comes from 1,000 random paths (the same seed each time, so identical inputs give identical results).
Needed at retirement is the smallest balance, with the same crypto share, that lasts to your plan-to age at median returns. Funding ratio is projected ÷ needed.
Taxes use the 2026 federal brackets and standard deduction for your filing status (verified 2026-09-23), long-term rates for crypto gains stacked on other income, the Social Security taxation formula, and your state’s top rate as a simplification. Required minimum distributions, Medicare premiums (IRMAA) and healthcare costs are not modelled.
Default assumptions and where they come from
| Assumption | Default | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 2.5% | US CPI-U averaged roughly 2.5% a year over the last 30 years (Bureau of Labor Statistics); the Fed targets 2%. |
| Stocks | 7%, 16% volatility | Deliberately below the ~10% average US large-cap total return since 1926, in line with lower long-run forecasts from large asset managers. |
| Bonds | 4%, 6% volatility | Close to current yields on intermediate US Treasury and investment-grade bond funds. |
| Crypto | 15% average, 55% volatility | An assumption, not a forecast. Bitcoin’s realised yearly volatility has mostly been 40-80%; there is no reliable long-run expected return, so test lower numbers too. |
| Social Security | $24,000 from 67 | Near the average retired-worker benefit; get your own estimate from your SSA account. |
Frequently asked questions
How much crypto should I hold for retirement?
There is no standard answer. Advisers who include crypto commonly suggest a small share of a retirement portfolio, such as 1-5%, because a 70-80% fall has happened several times. Use the "crypto share of monthly saving" slider and the what-if results to see how different amounts change your odds.
What does "chance of success" mean?
It is the share of 1,000 simulated futures in which your savings paid for your planned spending every year until your plan-to age. Each simulation draws random yearly returns for stocks/bonds and for crypto from lognormal distributions built from your average-return and volatility assumptions.
Why is the crypto line in the table growing slowly when I entered a high return?
The year-by-year table uses the median (typical) outcome, which for a volatile asset is well below the average. With a 15% average and 55% volatility the median yearly growth is only about 4% before inflation (about 1% after 2.5% inflation), because big losses need even bigger gains to recover (volatility drag). The Monte Carlo includes the rare very good outcomes that pull the average up.
Are the results in today’s dollars?
Yes. Every amount is in today’s purchasing power. Returns you enter are converted to after-inflation returns, and spending, Social Security and tax brackets stay in today’s dollars, which matches how Social Security and federal brackets are indexed to inflation.
How are taxes in retirement estimated?
Withdrawals are grossed up for federal tax using the 2026 brackets and standard deduction for your filing status, with crypto gains taxed at the 0/15/20% long-term rates stacked on other income, up to 85% of Social Security taxable, and a simplified state tax at your state’s top rate. Pre-tax (traditional) savings are taxed as ordinary income; Roth withdrawals are tax-free.
Is this financial advice?
No. It is an educational model with simplified assumptions. It does not know your full tax situation, required minimum distributions, healthcare costs or how your crypto is held. Talk to a fee-only fiduciary adviser before making retirement decisions.
Educational estimates only, not financial or tax advice. Crypto is highly volatile and can lose most of its value. Past returns do not predict future returns. Consult a qualified adviser for decisions about your retirement.