Bitcoin & Crypto Backtesting: Lump Sum vs DCA
See what a past investment in Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana would be worth today, bought all at once or in regular amounts (dollar-cost averaging). Results use real weekly prices since 2014 and show the return, the annualised return and the worst drop along the way.
Last updated · Price data through 2026-09-22 · Coin Metrics community data (daily close) through May 2026, then daily CoinGecko snapshots
Results
$1,000 invested in Bitcoin from January 6, 2020 would be worth $11,108 on September 22, 2026: a gain of $10,108 (+1010.8%) on $1,000 put in.
Money invested
$1,000
1 buy
Final value
$11,108
Total return
+1010.8%
Annualised (CAGR)
+43.2%/yr
Value vs money invested
What you held
- BTC accumulated
- 0.128766
- Average cost per BTC
- $7,766.00
- Price at start / end
- $7,766 / $86,264
- Profit / loss
- +$10,108
Risk along the way
- Largest BTC price drop
- -76.6%2021-11-08 → 2022-11-21
- Worst paper loss on your money
- -$354 (-35.4%)2020-03-16
- Highest BTC price in this window
- $124,8242025-10-06
Timeline
Showing 24 evenly spaced dates out of 352 price points and 1 buys.
| Date | BTC price | Invested | Value | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-06 | $7,766 | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 |
| 2020-04-20 | $6,853 | $1,000 | $882 | -$118 |
| 2020-08-10 | $11,870 | $1,000 | $1,528 | +$528 |
| 2020-11-23 | $18,373 | $1,000 | $2,366 | +$1,366 |
| 2021-03-08 | $52,088 | $1,000 | $6,707 | +$5,707 |
| 2021-06-21 | $31,715 | $1,000 | $4,084 | +$3,084 |
| 2021-10-11 | $57,289 | $1,000 | $7,377 | +$6,377 |
| 2022-01-24 | $36,660 | $1,000 | $4,721 | +$3,721 |
| 2022-05-09 | $30,458 | $1,000 | $3,922 | +$2,922 |
| 2022-08-22 | $21,301 | $1,000 | $2,743 | +$1,743 |
| 2022-12-12 | $17,196 | $1,000 | $2,214 | +$1,214 |
| 2023-03-27 | $27,155 | $1,000 | $3,497 | +$2,497 |
| 2023-07-10 | $30,395 | $1,000 | $3,914 | +$2,914 |
| 2023-10-23 | $32,954 | $1,000 | $4,243 | +$3,243 |
| 2024-02-12 | $49,990 | $1,000 | $6,437 | +$5,437 |
| 2024-05-27 | $69,348 | $1,000 | $8,930 | +$7,930 |
| 2024-09-09 | $57,136 | $1,000 | $7,357 | +$6,357 |
| 2024-12-23 | $94,801 | $1,000 | $12,207 | +$11,207 |
| 2025-04-14 | $84,589 | $1,000 | $10,892 | +$9,892 |
| 2025-07-28 | $118,023 | $1,000 | $15,197 | +$14,197 |
| 2025-11-10 | $106,082 | $1,000 | $13,660 | +$12,660 |
| 2026-02-23 | $64,690 | $1,000 | $8,330 | +$7,330 |
| 2026-06-15 | $66,785 | $1,000 | $8,600 | +$7,600 |
| 2026-09-22 | $86,264 | $1,000 | $11,108 | +$10,108 |
What $1,000 in Bitcoin became
$1,000 of BTC bought on January 1 of each year, valued on September 22, 2026 (bundled weekly data, no fees).
| Bought Jan 1 | BTC price then | Worth now | Total return | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $297 | $290,692 | +28969% | +62.2% |
| 2016 | $428 | $201,488 | +20049% | +64.0% |
| 2017 | $1,001 | $86,200 | +8520% | +58.2% |
| 2018 | $13,465 | $6,407 | +541% | +23.7% |
| 2019 | $3,732 | $23,116 | +2212% | +50.2% |
| 2020 | $7,382 | $11,685 | +1069% | +44.1% |
| 2021 | $29,761 | $2,899 | +190% | +20.4% |
| 2022 | $47,694 | $1,809 | +81% | +13.4% |
| 2023 | $16,716 | $5,160 | +416% | +55.4% |
| 2024 | $44,049 | $1,958 | +96% | +28.0% |
| 2025 | $95,282 | $905 | -9% | -5.6% |
| 2026 | $90,055 | $958 | -4% | -5.8% |
Recurring-buy examples
- $100 a week since the May 2020 halving: $33,300 invested became $85,423 (+157%; XIRR +29.8%/yr).
- $100 a week since the Nov 2021 peak: $25,500 invested became $51,785 (+103%; XIRR +30.1%/yr).
- $250 a month since Jan 2018: $26,250 invested became $140,709 (+436%; XIRR +37.0%/yr).
How the backtest is calculated
Every buy converts dollars to coins at that day’s price; the final value is coins held × the price on the end date.
- Choose an asset and dates. Pick Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana and a start and end date (or a preset like "5 years").
- Enter a one-off amount. The lump sum buys at the start date’s price. Set it to $0 if you only want to test recurring buys.
- Optionally add a recurring buy. Choose an amount and how often. Each buy uses the price on that date.
- Read the results. Final value, total and annualised return, the largest price drop in the window and your worst paper loss, plus DCA vs lump sum on the same money.
- Share or tweak. The URL updates as you type, so you can copy it to share the exact backtest.
Prices. Coin Metrics community data (daily close) through May 2026, then daily CoinGecko snapshots; generated 2026-09-23. With weekly points, prices between Mondays are interpolated, so a daily DCA is approximate. When live data loads, the last 12 months use daily closes.
Largest price drop is the biggest peak-to-trough fall in the asset’s price inside your window. Worst paper loss is the lowest point of value minus money invested. Annualised return is CAGR for a single buy and XIRR (money-weighted) when there are recurring buys. Trading fees, spreads and taxes are not included.
Frequently asked questions
What if I had invested $1,000 in Bitcoin?
Pick Bitcoin, enter $1,000 and a start date, and the backtester shows what that purchase would be worth on the latest date in our price history, along with the total and annualised return and the biggest drop you would have sat through. The table of example results on this page shows $1,000 invested on January 1 of each year since 2015.
Is DCA better than a lump sum?
Not usually in a market that mostly rises: studies of stocks find a lump sum beats dollar-cost averaging about two-thirds of the time because the money is invested for longer. DCA tends to win when prices fall or move sideways after you start, and it reduces the regret of buying right before a crash. Use the "Add a recurring buy" option to compare both on the same dates.
What is the annualised return for DCA?
For a recurring buy the page shows the money-weighted return (XIRR). It accounts for the fact that most of your money went in later, so it is a fairer yearly figure than spreading the total return over the whole period. For a single purchase it shows the compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Where does the price data come from?
Weekly (Monday) USD prices from Coin Metrics’ free community dataset through May 2026, then weekly points from daily CoinGecko snapshots. When your browser can reach CoinGecko, the last 12 months are replaced with daily prices. Prices between data points are interpolated, so results are close approximations rather than exchange fills, and fees are not included.
Why does Solana history only start in December 2025?
The free datasets we can redistribute do not include older Solana prices, so we only bundle what we could source and cross-check. Bitcoin history starts in January 2014 and Ethereum in August 2015.
Does past performance predict future returns?
No. Crypto has had several 70-85% declines, and its early growth is unlikely to repeat at the same pace. Use backtests to understand risk and timing, not to forecast.
Educational tool, not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results; crypto prices can fall 80% or more. Results exclude fees and taxes.